Change in the ASF entry risk into Japan as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Identifieur interne : 000204 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000203; suivant : 000205Change in the ASF entry risk into Japan as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Auteurs : Katsuaki Sugiura [Japon] ; Katsumasa Kure [Japon] ; Takuma Kato [Japon] ; Fumiaki Kyutoku [Japon] ; Takeshi Haga [Japon]Source :
- Transboundary and emerging diseases [ 1865-1682 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
Using a model developed previously by the authors, a risk assessment was conducted to predict the change in the risk of ASF entering Japan as a result of the coronavirus pandemic in humans. The monthly probability of ASF entering Japan through illegal importation of pig products from China was calculated to be 4.2% (90% prediction interval: 0.0%-24.9%) in January, 0.45% (0%-2.5%) in February, 0.03% (0%-0.2%) in March and 0.0002% (0%-0.001%) in April, 0.00005% (0%-0.0003%) in May and 0.0009% (0%-0.005%) in June 2020 indicating a significant decline in the risk of ASF entry into Japan from China. The decline was attributed to a decrease in the number of air travellers from China and amount of restaurant food waste.
DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13836
PubMed: 32969591
Affiliations:
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sortKey="Kure, Katsumasa" sort="Kure, Katsumasa" uniqKey="Kure K" first="Katsumasa" last="Kure">Katsumasa Kure</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Value Farm Consulting, Tsukuba, Japan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Value Farm Consulting, Tsukuba</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Tsukuba</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kato, Takuma" sort="Kato, Takuma" uniqKey="Kato T" first="Takuma" last="Kato">Takuma Kato</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Global Agricultural Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, the University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Japan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Global Agricultural Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, the University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Tokyo</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Tokyo</settlement><region type="province">Région de Kantō</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kyutoku, Fumiaki" sort="Kyutoku, Fumiaki" uniqKey="Kyutoku F" first="Fumiaki" last="Kyutoku">Fumiaki Kyutoku</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Global Agricultural Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, the University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Japan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Global Agricultural Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, the University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Tokyo</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Tokyo</settlement><region type="province">Région de Kantō</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Haga, Takeshi" sort="Haga, Takeshi" uniqKey="Haga T" first="Takeshi" last="Haga">Takeshi Haga</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Veterinary Medical Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, the University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Japan.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Japon</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Veterinary Medical Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, the University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Tokyo</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Tokyo</settlement><region type="province">Région de Kantō</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Transboundary and emerging diseases</title><idno type="eISSN">1865-1682</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Using a model developed previously by the authors, a risk assessment was conducted to predict the change in the risk of ASF entering Japan as a result of the coronavirus pandemic in humans. The monthly probability of ASF entering Japan through illegal importation of pig products from China was calculated to be 4.2% (90% prediction interval: 0.0%-24.9%) in January, 0.45% (0%-2.5%) in February, 0.03% (0%-0.2%) in March and 0.0002% (0%-0.001%) in April, 0.00005% (0%-0.0003%) in May and 0.0009% (0%-0.005%) in June 2020 indicating a significant decline in the risk of ASF entry into Japan from China. The decline was attributed to a decrease in the number of air travellers from China and amount of restaurant food waste.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="Publisher" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32969591</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>28</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1865-1682</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Sep</Month><Day>24</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Transboundary and emerging diseases</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Transbound Emerg Dis</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Change in the ASF entry risk into Japan as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1111/tbed.13836</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>Using a model developed previously by the authors, a risk assessment was conducted to predict the change in the risk of ASF entering Japan as a result of the coronavirus pandemic in humans. The monthly probability of ASF entering Japan through illegal importation of pig products from China was calculated to be 4.2% (90% prediction interval: 0.0%-24.9%) in January, 0.45% (0%-2.5%) in February, 0.03% (0%-0.2%) in March and 0.0002% (0%-0.001%) in April, 0.00005% (0%-0.0003%) in May and 0.0009% (0%-0.005%) in June 2020 indicating a significant decline in the risk of ASF entry into Japan from China. The decline was attributed to a decrease in the number of air travellers from China and amount of restaurant food waste.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© 2020 Wiley-VCH GmbH.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Sugiura</LastName><ForeName>Katsuaki</ForeName><Initials>K</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8807-7584</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Global Agricultural Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, the University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Kure</LastName><ForeName>Katsumasa</ForeName><Initials>K</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Value Farm Consulting, Tsukuba, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Kato</LastName><ForeName>Takuma</ForeName><Initials>T</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Global Agricultural Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, the University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Kyutoku</LastName><ForeName>Fumiaki</ForeName><Initials>F</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Global Agricultural Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, the University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Haga</LastName><ForeName>Takeshi</ForeName><Initials>T</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Veterinary Medical Sciences, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, the University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Japan.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><GrantList CompleteYN="Y"><Grant><Agency>The Ito Foundation</Agency><Country></Country></Grant></GrantList><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>24</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Germany</Country><MedlineTA>Transbound Emerg Dis</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101319538</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1865-1674</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">African swine fever (ASF)</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Japan</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">coronavirus (COVID-19)</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">risk assessment</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>24</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>09</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>10</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>24</Day><Hour>8</Hour><Minute>50</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>aheadofprint</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32969591</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1111/tbed.13836</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Title>REFERENCES</Title><Reference><Citation>Alonso, C., Borca, M., Dixon, L., Revilla, Y., Rodriguez, F., & Escribano, J.M., ICTV Report Consortium (2018). 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PLoS One, 15(5):e0232132. 2020, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0232132. eCollection.</Citation></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Japon</li></country><region><li>Région de Kantō</li></region><settlement><li>Tokyo</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université de Tokyo</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="Japon"><region name="Région de Kantō"><name sortKey="Sugiura, Katsuaki" sort="Sugiura, Katsuaki" uniqKey="Sugiura K" first="Katsuaki" last="Sugiura">Katsuaki Sugiura</name></region><name sortKey="Haga, Takeshi" sort="Haga, Takeshi" uniqKey="Haga T" first="Takeshi" last="Haga">Takeshi Haga</name><name sortKey="Kato, Takuma" sort="Kato, Takuma" uniqKey="Kato T" first="Takuma" last="Kato">Takuma Kato</name><name sortKey="Kure, Katsumasa" sort="Kure, Katsumasa" uniqKey="Kure K" first="Katsumasa" last="Kure">Katsumasa Kure</name><name sortKey="Kyutoku, Fumiaki" sort="Kyutoku, Fumiaki" uniqKey="Kyutoku F" first="Fumiaki" last="Kyutoku">Fumiaki Kyutoku</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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